Can robust exports be sustained?

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Shipments of palm oil, which contributed 6.5% to total exports, may drop as Indonesia recently reduced its export levy for crude palm oil (CPO) to zero from US$200 (RM889) per tonne.

EXPORTS expanded strongly in June, growing by 38.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), but palm oil exports could face stiffer competition from Indonesia and oil and gas shipments could moderate on softening energy prices.

While exports are buoyed by a weak ringgit, the momentum may cool on slowing global growth as a US recession may set in. With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates, the dollar will weaken and the stronger ringgit may no longer be a boost to our exports.

Shipments of palm oil, which contributed 6.5% to total exports, may drop as Indonesia recently reduced its export levy for crude palm oil (CPO) to zero from US$200 (RM889) per tonne.

As a result of its three-week ban on palm oil exports in May, Indonesia may take three months to lower its high palm oil inventory, and Malaysian palm oil exports could dip until this month.

Exports of electronic and electrical (E&E) products in June were still among the highest; shipments may start to drop in the quarters ahead as global semiconductor sales are pointing at lower growth, said CGS-CIMB Research in an economic update.

Pricing in slower export growth of about 10% in the second half of 2022 (after a 26% growth in the first half), growth in exports for 2022 is forecast at 18%.

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For 2023, export growth may moderate to 7.5% on slowing global growth to 3% this year and 2.4% next year (6.1% in 2021).

A lower average selling price (ASP) per tonne for CPO is expected – RM3,400 next year versus RM5,000 this year (seven months in 2022: RM6,005), said Maybank Investment Bank chief economist Suhaimi Illias.

But the ASP for crude oil is still expected at US$100 (RM444) per barrel this and next year; forecasts are with a downside risk bias, added Suhaimi.

Export growth is expected to be robust but in view of global factors such as war in Ukraine and US rate hikes, it may moderate towards the end of the second half of 2022, said Employees Provident Fund head of economics and research Dr Afzanizam Mohamed Rashid.

While the weak ringgit has helped to boost our competitiveness, the sharp rise in the US fed funds rate is likely to take a toll on the US economy as higher borrowing costs curtail US domestic demand.

Global supply disruptions also affect turnaround time and the productivity of our economy which is highly integrated with the outside world.

As Bank Negara may be raising rates further, the Fed is moving far more rapidly to hike rates, thus further strengthening the dollar.When will the Fed stop hiking rates?